Tuesday, June 16, 2015

BoJ Gov. Kuroda said he wasn’t trying to influence JPY

      BoJ Gov. Kuroda said he wasn’t trying to influence JPY

      In a speech today, Gov. said that his last week’s comment about Japan’s real effective exchange rate (REER) was not intending to make any assessment on nominal JPY levels. He also added that he never said that he didn’t want JPY to weaken on a nominal basis.
      USD/JPY spiked on the news but gave back most of the gains. The failure to reach levels prior last week’s comment suggest the market is not expecting further stimulus anytime soon.
      We do not expect any action at least until July, when the results of this year’s wage negotiation should be known and the MPC members update their forecasts again.

      RBA minutes show a neutral bias

      The minutes showed no clear bias with regards to the direction of the next move in rates and simply said that the data in the future will tell them whether their stance is appropriate.
      About AUD, they repeated that “further depreciation seems both likely and necessary…”
      AUD/USD weakened sharply on the report but bounced back to trade in a consolidative mode; I would adopt a neutral stance for AUD/USD but I remain bullish on AUD/NZD.

      Today:

      Eurozone: German ZEW survey for June is expected to be lower = EUR-negative
      UK:  CPI rate for May is expected to rise 0.1% yoy from -0.1% yoy. This could be GBP supportive.
      US: Housing starts & building permits for May are in line with the overall strength in the housing sector. A positive surprise could strengthen USD.

      Speakers:  ECB Executive Board member Yves Mersch, ECB Governing Council members Ewald Nowotny and Klaas Knot. 

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