Monday, June 22, 2015

Greece is the word!

     Greece is the word!

    Greek PM Tsipras to meet leaders of the 3 creditors today
    EU leaders’ summit today to present Tsipras with ultimatum:  either accept reforms or prepare for default. Greek papers say he’s ready to accept a compromise
    ECB will meet today to discuss further emergency aid for Greece
    If they don’t reach agreement, Tuesday will be a “difficult day”!!!! Expect either a bank holiday or capital controls
    If they do reach agreement, I would expect Tsipras to call a referendum

     Market either not expecting default or not worried about it
    Most Greek debt is held by public sector, not investors or banks = no contagion
    Only sign of unease is in the German version of VIX index as investors hedge

     Today:

    US: Existing home sales for May forecast to have increased.

     This week:

    Tuesday: PMI day globally, starting with China as usual. China expected to remain under 50, Eurozone manufacturing PMIs expected to decline a bit. US durable goods.
    Wednesday:  German Ifo survey for June could be weak = EUR-negative; 3rd estimate of US Q1 GDP expected to improve = USD positive
    Thursday:  US personal income & spending for May both forecast to accelerate = USD-positive
    Friday:  End-of-month data from Japan including CPI expected to decelerate further


No comments:

Post a Comment