End of European support program for Greece, Greek payment to IMF ?

•     EUR recovers, leads G10 currencies over the last 24 hours

–    Fed funds rate expectations retreat on thoughts that Greek crisis may restrain Fed

–    Expectations of a successful  “yes” vote cause some optimism

–    Spread between US and German bond yields narrows

–    Some investors may be optimistic about the prospects of a Eurozone without Greece

•     CAD and NZD were the only G10 currencies to fall vs USD

–    Oil prices fell as it started to look more likely that Iran would work out an accord over their nuclear program, paving the way for further exports

–    ANZ business confidence index falls to the lowest since March 2011 (immediately after big earthquake in Christchurch) while business activity falls to lowest since June 2012

•     Focus today:  End of European support program for Greece, Greek payment to IMF

–    What will the IMF’s reaction be when they don’t pay? Stay tuned!

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: Flash CPI for June; decline likely after yesterday’s fall in German CPI. Eurozone unemployment for June. German retail sales for May, June unemployment

–    UK:  3^rd estimate of Q1 GDP expected to be revised up = GBP-positive

–    Canada: Monthly GDP for April expected to accelerate = CAD-positive

–    US: S&P/Case Shiller house price index for April; Chicago PMI & Conference Board consumer confidence index for June