Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Main points of the day

     Good news on US employment, but USD mixed
    NFIB small business optimism “plan to hire” index rises
    JOLTS survey shows rise in job openings to highest level since 2001
    Yet Fed Funds rate expectations fall, USD fails to get broad support
    News should be USD-positive in the longer term, however
     EUR/USD falls after ZEW disappoints, stays within recent range
     GBP strong ahead of today’s inflation report
    BRC retail sales were weak, yet GBP rallied = positioning ahead of today’s report
    Key point will be how much slack the MPC sees in the economy
     Oil prices (especially Brent) fall after IEA cuts demand forecast
    “Despite armed conflict…the oil market today looks better supplied than expected”
    As US gets involved in Iraq, risk premium should subside, prices fall further
     Today:
    Eurozone:  Industrial production for June expected to show moderate rebound
    UK:  Unemployment rate for June expected to fall, BoE inflation report including new economic forecasts
    US: Retail sales for June should stay at May’s pace, no impetus to trading


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