•
Risk premium falls; USD weakens, EM
currencies gain
– US
involvement in Iraq seen as aiding stability in that country; comments from
Russia suggest the country wants to bring the turmoil in Ukraine to an end
– Safe-havens
USD, JPY, gold fall; stocks gain; Brent oil declines
– Look for
high-yielding EM currencies and Eastern European currencies to gain if the
prospects for peace in Ukraine improve
•
NZD, CAD worst-performing currencies last
week
– NZD fell
Wednesday on employment data, falling milk prices; has been recovering ever
since; could continue to rally gently as no major NZ indicators this week
– CAD down
on Friday’s weak employment data; expect it to weaken further
•
NOK was best-performing currency last week;
could fall today
– July CPI
expected to slow; could cause worries for Norges Bank, profit-taking in NOK
•
Today: Eurozone, UK, US: no major
indicators
•
This week:
– Tuesday:
ZEW survey. Wednesday: Bank of England inflation report with new economic
forecasts, China retail sales & IP, Eurozone IP, UK unemployment, US retail
sales. Thursday: preliminary Eurozone GDP. Friday: UK GDP, US IP, Empire
State survey and UoM consumer sentiment
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