•
USD mixed despite weak US data
– ADP report
comes in below 200k, ISM index falls 1.4 points to two-year low
– Yet USD is
steady to higher vs most G10 currencies
– Exceptions
were CHF, CAD and NOK, the latter two on higher oil
•
ADP report doesn’t necessarily mean a weak NFP
– Average
absolute difference between ADP and NFP is 68k, errors are randomly distributed
between higher and lower than NFP
– So
yesterday’s report could go along with a higher-than-expected NFP
– However,
recent strong employment growth seems increasingly at odds with other weak
data, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see some payback in March
•
Oil prices rise on 1st fall in US oil output since January
– WTI surges
after US oil output declines in latest reporting week, first fall since Jan
– CAD and NOK
higher as a result
– I still
expect oil prices to move lower on Iranian agreement, boost to US output in
June, thus I remain bearish CAD and NOK
•
Today:
– Eurozone: Minutes of
ECB March monetary policy meeting to be released
– UK:
Construction PMI for March. Added to strong manufacturing PMI, could bolster
GBP
– US: Initial
jobless claims, February trade balance and factory orders
No comments:
Post a Comment