Greece to pay IMF; can it pay its own people?

•     Greece to pay IMF; can it pay its own people?

–    Greek Finance Minister met with IMF head, said he’d pay IMF on Thursday

–    Greece may be able to meet next week’s payments for salaries and pensions; but can it meet all its payments due in May, too? The country is falling into recession again

–    While Greece remains a risk, the risk of explosion this month is less = EUR-positive

•     US employment report:  weak, weak, weak

–    NFP down, participation rate down, average workweek down. Only good news:  average earnings up a bit

–    Fed funds rate expectations plunge, USD weakens all around

•     I expect USD bounce-back this morning

–    Usual pattern:  big move on payroll Friday, smaller move in opposite direction Monday

–    Although many Europeans were out on Friday, I still expect some rebound in USD

•     Today:

–    US: Labor market conditions index for March; ISM non-manufacturing PMI

–    Canada:  Ivey PMI survey for March

•     This week:

–    Tuesday: RBA meeting. We expect RBA to cut, AUD to weaken

–    Wednesday:  BoJ meeting likely to be another non-event; minutes from latest FOMC meeting will be of more interest

–    Thursday: BoE meeting likely to be non-event, as usual

–    Friday: Canada unemployment rate for March