US retail sales misses estimates, calls into question US recovery

•     US retail sales misses estimates, calls into question US recovery

–    Small business optimism declines, IMF revises down US growth estimates

–    Fed funds rate expectations fell, USD weakened all around

–    Oil currencies performed best as WTI rose over 2% -- move may have further to go

•     China growth disappoints, especially industrial production

–    GDP was spot on estimates @ 7.0%, but IP was below all estimates

–    Stock market falls – negative for AUD, NZD

•     Japan PM Advisor Hamada backtracks, says Y120 “acceptable”

–    His quick retraction shows that yen depreciation is still the party line

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: ECB meeting:  no new initiatives likely. Questions to be asked about EUR, Greece, whether they might cut deposit rate or begin tapering before Sep. 2016

–    Eurozone indicators:  Final German CPI for March, French CPI, Eurozone trade balance

–    US: Industrial production for March expected to decline but Empire State manufacturing survey for April expected to improve = USD-positive. NAHB housing index also expected to rise. Beige Book released.

–    Canada:  BoC expected to keep rates steady. More optimistic tone of statement could firm CAD.