FT says Greece preparing for default; Greek official denies report

•     USD generally weaker vs G10 currencies

–    No clear reason; Fed funds rate expectations down a few bps for first time in a week

–    Higher only vs EUR

•     FT says Greece preparing for default; Greek official denies report

–    Says unless EU releases bailout funds, it won’t pay IMF in May or June

–    German paper says country has until Apr. 20^th to come up with a plan

–    I expect they’ll reach some compromise, but you never know!

•     USD/JPY falls on comment that 105 is appropriate level

–    Abe advisor says JPY undervalued, PPP suggests 105 is more appropriate

–    Tide seems to be shifting against weaker yen

–    But with inflation well below target and exports under pressure, I think they’ll still try to weaken it further

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: ECB Q1 Bank Lending Survey, 1^st survey after QE started

–    Sweden:  CPI, PES unemployment rate for March

–    UK:  March CPI expected at 0.0% yoy; slip into deflation would be GBP-negative

–    US: Retail sales for March due to rise mom, a turnaround from Feb’s decline. That would support the idea that recent slowdown was just weather-related and be USD+

–    Speakers:  Riksbank’s Ingves, Norges Bank’s Olsen

–    Tomorrow:  China GDP, retail sales, industrial production, fixed asset investment. GDP forecast at +7.0% yoy; below that would be worrisome for AUD & NZD