Points of the day

•     Disappointing data reassures on rates, fuels search for carry

–    Eurozone industrial production misses expectations

–    UK wage growth turns negative, Bank of England slashes forecast for wages in 2014

–    US retail sales disappoint, economists revise down forecasts for Q3 GDP

–    US Fed Funds rate expectations and BoE rate expectations decline

•     Stock markets gain, EM currencies rise in “risk on” atmosphere

–    Lower rate expectations encourage equity bulls, fuel search for carry

–    EM currencies likely to do well in this kind of environment

•     EUR/USD relatively volatile but 1.3330 bottom holds

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: Eurozone Q2 GDP data:  Germany GDP expected to contract, France to continue to stagnate, Eurozone as a whole to stagnate. Could be EUR-negative. ECB quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters will show what the consensus for Eurozone growth is (before these figures were released). Final Eurozone CPI for June due out

–    US: Initial jobless claims for week to 9 Aug expected to increase marginally.