•
Good news on US employment, but USD mixed
– NFIB
small business optimism “plan to hire” index rises
– JOLTS
survey shows rise in job openings to highest level since 2001
– Yet Fed
Funds rate expectations fall, USD fails to get broad support
– News
should be USD-positive in the longer term, however
•
EUR/USD falls after ZEW disappoints, stays
within recent range
•
GBP strong ahead of today’s inflation report
– BRC
retail sales were weak, yet GBP rallied = positioning ahead of today’s report
– Key point
will be how much slack the MPC sees in the economy
•
Oil prices (especially Brent) fall after IEA
cuts demand forecast
– “Despite
armed conflict…the oil market today looks better supplied than expected”
– As US
gets involved in Iraq, risk premium should subside, prices fall further
•
Today:
– Eurozone:
Industrial production for June expected to show moderate rebound
– UK:
Unemployment rate for June expected to fall, BoE inflation report including new
economic forecasts
– US: Retail
sales for June should stay at May’s pace, no impetus to trading
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