Greece votes “No” by a substantial margin

•     Greece votes “No” by a substantial margin

–    PM Tsipras will now try to negotiate, but creditors will have to make an even harsher offer than before as the country’s economy has deteriorated

–    Since voters didn’t approve the previous offer, he can’t accept a harsher one

–    He may have painted himself into a policy corner with only Grexit as the way out

•     ECB likely to stay on hold while politicians talk

–    Eurozone summit to be held on Tuesday

–    ECB will probably keep its emergency funding to Greece stable while politicians talk

–    Eventually Greece will either capitulate or to go back to the drachma. I think drachma.

•     Market isn’t expecting any big trouble; €/$ is still in same range

–    Most sensitive pairs: EM or commodity currencies, XXX/JPY

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: German factory orders for May

–    Canada: Ivey PMI could bring a positive surprise

–    US: Labor market conditions index for June

•     This week:

–    Tuesday:  RBA meeting; expected to stay on hold. UK IP for May

–    Wednesday:  Minutes of June FOMC meeting

–    Thursday: China CPI & PPI; BoE policy meeting

Friday:  Canada unemployment