Monday, June 22, 2015

Greece is the word!

•     Greece is the word!

–    Greek PM Tsipras to meet leaders of the 3 creditors today
–    EU leaders’ summit today to present Tsipras with ultimatum:  either accept reforms or prepare for default. Greek papers say he’s ready to accept a compromise
–    ECB will meet today to discuss further emergency aid for Greece
–    If they don’t reach agreement, Tuesday will be a “difficult day”!!!! Expect either a bank holiday or capital controls
–    If they do reach agreement, I would expect Tsipras to call a referendum

•     Market either not expecting default or not worried about it
–    Most Greek debt is held by public sector, not investors or banks = no contagion
–    Only sign of unease is in the German version of VIX index as investors hedge

•     Today:

–    US: Existing home sales for May forecast to have increased.

•     This week:

–    Tuesday: PMI day globally, starting with China as usual. China expected to remain under 50, Eurozone manufacturing PMIs expected to decline a bit. US durable goods.
–    Wednesday:  German Ifo survey for June could be weak = EUR-negative; 3rd estimate of US Q1 GDP expected to improve = USD positive
–    Thursday:  US personal income & spending for May both forecast to accelerate = USD-positive
–    Friday:  End-of-month data from Japan including CPI expected to decelerate further


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