•
Greece is the word!
– Greek PM
Tsipras to meet leaders of the 3 creditors today
– EU leaders’
summit today to present Tsipras with ultimatum: either accept reforms or
prepare for default. Greek papers say he’s ready to accept a compromise
– ECB will
meet today to discuss further emergency aid for Greece
– If they
don’t reach agreement, Tuesday will be a “difficult day”!!!! Expect either a
bank holiday or capital controls
– If they do
reach agreement, I would expect Tsipras to call a referendum
•
Market either not expecting default or not
worried about it
– Most Greek
debt is held by public sector, not investors or banks = no contagion
– Only sign
of unease is in the German version of VIX index as investors hedge
•
Today:
– US: Existing
home sales for May forecast to have increased.
•
This week:
– Tuesday: PMI day
globally, starting with China as usual. China expected to remain under 50,
Eurozone manufacturing PMIs expected to decline a bit. US durable goods.
– Wednesday:
German Ifo survey for June could be weak = EUR-negative; 3rd estimate of US Q1 GDP expected to improve =
USD positive
– Thursday: US
personal income & spending for May both forecast to accelerate =
USD-positive
– Friday:
End-of-month data from Japan including CPI expected to decelerate
further
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