Wednesday, June 17, 2015

FOMC meeting what to expect - ECB increasing the ELA to Greek banks ?

•      FOMC meeting what to expect

•      The last three statements from Fed officials were all unanimous, but that could have been only the calm before the storm.
•      The policy statement to be released could show few dissenters voting for a rate hike.
•      How many, is key to the market interpretation of the likelihood of a September rate hike scenario.
•      Fed officials will also give new economic projections: They could downgrade the outlook for the economy somewhat.
•      “Dot plot” of Fed funds rate expectations could show a lower rate path with only one rate increase this year from two suggested in March.
•      Fed Chair Yellen press conference following the decision: Watch for a positive tone and look for hints that September is the preferred month for the first rate hike.

•      ECB holds a non-monetary policy meeting to decide whether to increase the limit of ELA to Greek banks and raise the haircut on Greek bonds used as collateral

•      Today:
•      Eurozone: final CPI for May; The final figure is forecast to confirm the preliminary reading. Thus the market reaction could be limited.
•      UK:  Employment report for April: A decline in the unemployment rate and an acceleration in the growth of earnings could prove GBP-supportive.
•      Bank of England releases the minutes of its June meeting. An optimistic tone along with a strong labor report could strengthen GBP.
•      Canada: Wholesale trade sales, usually not a major market mover. 

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