Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Greece: Another meeting...and again no agreement

•      Greece: Another meeting...and again no agreement
–     Progress has been achieved but “more time is needed to bridge the remaining gaps”.
–     The talks with the new negotiating team of Greece were “more efficient, more positive, more constructive”.
–     The positive talks could prompt the ECB to keep the level of the haircut on the collateral Greek banks provide unchanged.

•      San Francisco Fed President John Williams keeps the rate hike scenario alive
–     Williams reassured the market that the US economy could rebound in Q2 and that the weakness in Q1 GDP was “a big anomaly”.
–     He expects the unemployment rate to decline to 5% or even lower by the end-2015.
–     Rate hike is on the table at every Fed meeting, and the decision will depend on the economic data.
–     USD is likely to regain its lost glamour as the alternatives within the G10 become less attractive.

•      Today:
–     Sweden: CPI and CPIF, and minutes of the April policy meeting. A positive tone in the minutes and a strong CPI are likely to support SEK.
–     UK:  industrial production for March. A positive surprise could strengthen GBP.
–     US:  NFIB small business optimism for April and Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for March.

–     Speakers: Riksbank Deputy Governor Per Jansson.

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