Friday, May 8, 2015

Every poll was wrong: Conservatives win UK election!!!

     Every poll was wrong:  Conservatives win UK election!!!
    They increased their seats to 316, close to the 323 needed for a majority
    Could run a minority government, since none of the other parties would want to re-run the election again. (Assuming the exit polls are correct!)
    Removes the major political risks :  either a Labour government with SNP support, or no government at all. BUT it means referendum on EU membership in 2017!
    Sterling up sharply on the news; likely to trade on economic fundamentals again until the risk of the referendum starts to be a major issue

     RBA lowers forecasts in Statement on Monetary Policy
    Says it is prepared to “adjust policy if needed” = easing bias
    I expect another rate cut as China slows further, AUD to weaken

     Incredible volatility in Bunds
    Range yesterday: 0.58% to 0.78%!; Market waiting to hear Constancio’s speech today

     Today:
    Eurozone: German industrial production, trade figures for March
    Canada:  Unemployment rate for April expected to rise = CAD-negative

    US: Nonfarm payrolls for April expected @ 230k, up from 126k; unemployment to fall to 5.4% from 5.5%. Anything over 200k would be USD-positive

No comments:

Post a Comment