•
ADP report disappoints; dollar falls
– Only 175k
jobs added, less than 200k expectations
– The
relationship between ADP and NFP is actually random, but nobody seems to care
about that. You have to trade along with the market.
•
Fed funds rate expectations are rising
nonetheless
– Up 4.5 bps
in the long end yesterday
– Says to me
that the dollar’s decline, rise in bond yields etc is due more to
positioning than a rethink of the outlook – I still see USD recovering
•
Australia’s unemployment rate rises in April,
as expected
– Number of
employed people fell, job mix worsens (fewer full-time, more part-time)
– AUD rises
nonetheless
•
Today:
– Eurozone: German
factory orders, French industrial production (both March)
– Norway:
Norges Bank expected to remain on hold = NOK-positive
– UK: It’s
Election Day! Wait for the exit polls to come out around 2100 GMT
– US: Weekly
jobless claims
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