•
Weak data hit USD
– Housing
starts weaker than the lowest expectation despite improved weather, jobless
claims above consensus; Phili Fed beats estimates
– Data
disappointing, USD weakens
•
Oil rallies on Yemen news
– Oil prices
initially plunged on news that Saudi Arabia had boosted output to the highest
in around 30 years, but then fell back after Al Qaida captured oil terminal in
Yemen
– I expect
Saudi Arabia wants to keep oil prices depressed so I don’t think rally has much
further to go
•
Fed views mixed
– Vice Chair
Fischer & Mester (non-voter) expect to see rates start rising
– Lockhart
and Rosengren (non-voter) are willing to wait longer
•
Greek bonds blow up
– Nothing is
happening with Greece, but that’s just the problem: they don’t have time
to do nothing. Deadline apparently extended to May 11, but huge payment due to
IMF on 12th means it may be too late. Still more
disagreements than agreements
•
Today:
– Eurozone: Final CPI
for March
– UK:
Unemployment rate for Feb forecast to fall = GBP-positive
– US: CPI rate
inflation rate expected to remain unchanged = USD-neutral. U of M
consumer sentiment index expected to rise
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