The day of central banks! Five central banks meet over next 24 hrs

•     The day of central banks! Five central banks meet over next 24 hrs

–    Riksbank: Likely to cut rates. Market expects 10 bps cut to -0.35%. Likely market reaction:  Although already discounted, dovish comments should weaken SEK.

–    ECB:  Regular weekly meeting will discuss haircut on Greek ELA collateral. Probably no move today, since Athens just reshuffled negotiating team.

–    FOMC:  I expect they will reaffirm that recent weakness in indicators is only temporary and they expect to meet their employment & inflation target; will want to leave themselves the option of raising rates in June. Likely market reaction:  may be perceived as more hawkish than expected, USD to firm.

–    RBNZ: Market expects no change in rates. Question will be whether they move from a neutral stance to an easing bias. Likely market reaction:  A change in stance could weaken NZD, whereas if they reaffirm neutral stance, NZD would probably strengthen

–    BoJ:  Focus will be on new inflation forecasts. Do they still see inflation hitting 2% during the current FY? If not, they may have to increase stimulus at some point. Likely market reaction:  little reaction expected as no action likely

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: German CPI for March expected to accelerate a bit; Eurozone money supply, EU consumer confidence

–    US: Q1 GDP expected to slow to 1.0% qoq SAAR from +2.2% in Q4; also personal consumption expenditure index