Slowing global growth is the theme

•     Slowing global growth is the theme

–    China cuts required reserve ratio Sunday but copper price falls steadily

–    Chinese companies previously seen as protected are now defaulting on their debt; will be negative for growth going forward

•     PMIs generally disappointing

–    China PMI slips further below 50, Japan below 50 for 1^st time in almost a year

–    Eurozone PMIs all decline, including France and Germany

–    US also falls; US new home sales also down sharply, Kansas City Fed index down

–    Jobless claims edge higher (but still consistent with above-200k NFP)

•     What currencies are likely to do badly if growth slows?

–    CAD, AUD, NZD are highly correlated with copper price (a proxy for growth)

–    So are central European currencies

–    But watch for oil-related currencies; CAD is sensitive to Middle East tensions, too

•     Will there be a strike in South Africa’s gold mines?

–    Union is looking for 75% rise; there could be a strike. Watch the news!

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: German Ifo survey should be positive, following strong ZEW survey

–    US: Durable goods orders for March. A rise in nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft orders, aka “core capital goods,” would be a good sign of a turnaround in investment

Meeting:  Eurozone finance ministers & central bankers meet to discuss Greece