Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis sidelined?

•     Dallas Fed survey disappoints
–    Rises only slightly despite rebound in oil; USD weaker as US growth disappoints

•     Greek Finance Minister Varoufakis sidelined, or is he?
–    Athens makes new negotiating team, although Varoufakis still seems to be in charge
–    Things can’t get worse; rally in bank stocks shows some think they might get better
–    Watch tomorrow’s ECB meeting to see the official reaction

•     China QE is no such thing
–    PBOC buying local govt debt as lender of last resort; not QE at all
–    But market got temporarily excited about it, commodity prices rallied

•     GBP gains as Conservatives gain in polls
–    But in fact Tories may be worse than Labour for GBP because of EU referendum

•     Wednesday’s FOMC meeting:  What to expect
–    Look for whether they think economy is in “soft patch” or structural downturn

•     Today:
–    Eurozone: French consumer confidence
–    UK:  Q1 GDP expected to slow; could depress GBP

–    US: Conference Board leading index, Richmond Fed index, S&P/Case Shiller house price index

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