Thursday, April 16, 2015

Draghi is dovish - Protestor jumps Mario during press conference

•     Draghi is dovish
–    No problems in implementing QE, no intention to “taper” or make any changes at least until the initial ending period of Sep. 2016; sees real EUR interest rates moving lower
–    On the other hand, not planning to cut deposit rate either
- Mario Draghi was attacked by a “Ninja” ECB fighter who obviously was fed up with ECB’s indecisive action or inaction

•     Bank of Canada is optimistic; little change of further easing
–    Points to stronger non-energy exports, increasing investment, improving labor market
–    Output gap will be back in trend later this year = no more need to ease any time soon

•     Oil soars on relatively small inventory build, gasoline drawdown
–    1.3mn barrel increase compares to average 6.9mn barrels previously this year
–    Crude oil production falls slightly, gasoline inventories fall 2mn barrels – unusual for this time of year
–    Oil prices soar, oil currencies soar = NOK was best-performing G10 currency

•     Australian unemployment unexpectedly falls to 6.1% from 6.3%
–    Even as participation rate rises; both part- and full-time employment beat forecasts
–    AUD up sharply

•     Today:
–    US: Housing starts & building permits for March; starts expected to rise after February’s unseasonably cold weather stalled building, but permits expected to fall. Consistent with improving housing market following big rise in NAHB index

–    Speakers:  ECB’s Constancio, Fed Presidents Lockhart, Rosengren & Mester and Vice Chair Fischer

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