Yellen says rate hikes likely to come this year but be “gradual”

•     Yellen says rate hikes likely to come this year but be “gradual”

–    Nothing really new in her statements, which repeat the usual Fed line

–    Dollar strengthened on increased conviction that hikes are coming

•     Greece to be focus today, this week

–    Greece submitted long-awaited list of reforms; not yet satisfactory

–    Relies too much on hope to raise revenues rather than concrete measures; no reforms on labor laws or pensions, areas that Troika insists on but Greek officials rule out

–    It’s not clear whether they bridge the differences before Greece runs out of money

•     Oil falls on possible Iran settlement

–    Would add 1mn b/d to world supply

•     Japan industrial production falls, demonstrating weak recovery

–    Likely to increase pressure to weaken JPY

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: German CPI for March

–    UK:  Mortgage approvals for Feb

–    US: Personal income & expenditure for Fed, PCE deflator, pending home sales for Feb, Dallas Fed manufacturing index

•     Rest of week:

–    No major central bank meetings

–    Japan tankan Wednesday Small rise expected = JPY-negative?

–    Big event is Friday’s NFP:  Expectations are for 250k rise = USD-positive