Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Greece readies its proposals for the Eurogroup next Monday

•     Greece readies its proposals for the Eurogroup next Monday
–    Some are in line with their requests, like some revenue-raising measures
–    But others aren’t, e.g. free electricity and the refusal to privatize the electric company and possibly bringing the banks under government control
–    Greece is out of the headlines for now but still a risk factor for EUR

•     Copper falls, showing the fading impact of China rate cut
–    Rate cuts are lagging indicators – AUD and probably NZD to fall further as Chinese growth slows more

•     US gasoline prices rising, adding to inflation expectations
–    Inflation expectations push Fed funds rate expectations higher, supporting USD
–    Gasoline rising due to issues with refineries, not higher crude

•     Today:
–    Eurozone: Final service-sector PMIs for February
–    Canada:  Bank of Canada meets; not expected to cut rates, but a dovish statement could push USD/CAD back above 1.2500

–    US: ADP report expected to show a rise in the number of jobs = USD-positive. Beige book released

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