•
ECB starts QE; Bund yields plunge
– Sharp move
in Bunds suggests that QE hasn’t been totally discounted in bond market
– If so, it
probably hasn’t been fully discounted in FX market, either
•
Greek situation still critical
– No progress
over last two weeks. Technical talks to start on Wednesday
– Greece is
still short of funds and no sign of new money being disbursed
– So EUR risk
is rising again while ECB reduces the risk premium in EUR bonds! Not a good
combination for the currency.
•
Two more Fed speakers back a mid-year hike
– Mester
& Fisher, two known hawks, naturally suggest hiking rates
•
NZD falls on threat to milk, but AUD falls even
more
– Milk
futures trading halted as someone threatens to poison New Zealand’s mil
– AUD falls
even more after NAB business confidence index falls
•
China inflation rate rises as food prices jump
– But PPI
remains heavily in deflation; threat to global prices remains
•
Today:
– Eurozone: French
industrial production
– Norway: CPI
for February likely to have accelerated
– US: NFIB small
business optimism expected to rise a bit; JOLTS report expected to show
increase in number of job openings = USD-bullish
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