Better-than-expected jobless claims support USD

•     Better-than-expected jobless claims support USD

–    Jobless claims beat estimates, show that US labor market continues to improve

–    US Fed funds expectations rise, bond yields rise

–    USD gains vs all other G10 currencies, most EM

•     Why I’m bearish oil

–    US production hasn’t slowed even though prices have fallen

–    Inventories are at a record level; Cushing storage tanks will be full by June

–    Oil output likely to rise in June because of regulations in the #2 oil producing state

–    Increase in production when there’s no place to put it = lower prices

•     Japan inflation back to zero after factoring in tax hike

–    Shows BoJ’s efforts to jumpstart inflation haven’t worked

–    They will probably have to redouble their efforts = weaker JPY

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: French consumer confidence

–    Sweden:  retail sales for Feb expected to decelerate slightly, SEK-negative

–    Norway:  official unemployment rate for March, retail sales for Feb = NOK-positive

–    US: 3^rd estimate of Q4 GDP expected to be revised up; final U of M consumer sentiment for March

–    Speakers:  4 central bank governors (BoE’s Carney, Riksbank’s Ingves, Norges’ Bank’s Olsen & Fed Chair Yellen) plus one Vice Chair (Fed’s Fischer)