Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Market takes Yellen’s comments as dovish

•     Market takes Yellen’s comments as dovish
–    Although she confirms that they are likely to raise rates as early as June, it depends on the data. They won’t necessarily start hiking rates right after dropping “patient”
–    Moreover she said they were looking at inflation including food & energy as well as core PCE, which is also dovish
–    Fed funds rate expectations fall sharply. USD still underpinned as next move is still up, but rate of strengthening may be slower than I had anticipated

•     BoC Gov. Poloz surprises with dovish statement
–    Says cut in rates has bought some time, implying no hike in March meeting
–    With oil prices still falling and rates likely to fall, I still think CAD is likely to weaken

•     Eurozone accepts Greek proposals
–    New questions:  how do they finance the government for now? And how to raise taxes?

•     China HSBC/Markit manufacturing PMI for Feb @ 50.1
–    Move back above 50 boosts AUD and NZD, at least temporarily

•     Today:
–    Eurozone: French consumer confidence for Feb
–    Sweden: Minutes of latest Riksbank meeting   Norway: AKU unemployment

–    US: 2nd day of Yellen testimony; new home sales for January

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