Dollar stages broad recovery

•     Dollar stages broad recovery

–    St. Louis Fed President Bullard says Fed should remove “patient” phrase in March

–    US core CPI for January higher than expected, confirming Yellen’s observation that the fall in inflation is largely due to lower oil prices. Real wages jump.

–    USD gains vs all G10 currencies, most EM currencies

•     EUR/USD ignores favorable European news

–    # of German unemployed falls more than expected, consumer confidence up

–    But EUR isn’t watching European growth, because it won’t affect ECB monetary policy

•     Oil falls sharply on talk of progress in Iran talks

–    That would allow 700k bbl/d into the already flooded market

–    But US may give Congress veto over any agreement = much less likely

•     Japan IP jumps even as retail sales slump

–    Confirms that exports are driving economy, not domestic demand

–    Makes it more likely authorities will support weaker JPY

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: German CPI, as well as Spanish & Italian

–    Scandis: Sweden Q4 GDP, Norway official unemployment for February

–    US: 2^nd estimate of Q4 GDP expected to be revised down; Chicago PMI, final U of M consumer sentiment for Feb, pending home sales for Jan