Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Singapore joins the easing parade

•     Singapore joins the easing parade
–    Cites lower oil prices as the major reason behind reduced inflation expectations
–    Says it will seek a slower appreciation of SGD (their monetary policy tool)
–    First between-meeting change in rates since 9/11 = they must be worried!

•     Mixed Australia inflation picture suggests less easing pressure
–    Headline inflation rate accelerates, but “trimmed mean” inflation gauge accelerates
–    Market reduces likelihood of RBA tightening policy next week, AUD rises
–    I think Australia can’t avoid global deflationary trend, expect this spike to be temporary

•     Today:
–    Europe: Norway’s AKU inflation rate expected to remain unchanged
–    US: FOMC meeting:  I expect the statement to remain largely unchanged. I expect them to retain the “patient” terminology and to make no major changes in the outlook for growth, inflation or employment. Result should be USD-supportive

–    New Zealand:  RBNZ meeting may shift from a tightening stance to a neutral stance. That would be NZD-negative.

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