Thursday, December 11, 2014

New Zealand shifts to tightening bias from neutral

•     New Zealand shifts to tightening bias from neutral

–    “Some further increase in the OCR is expected to be required,” it says – previously it had indicated the next move could be either up or down
–    NZD soars – likely to be the strongest of the commodity currencies, in my view

•     Australia employment beats expectations, but AUD gains only a bit

–    Shows that AUD is moving according to global risk appetite and stock markets

•     Oil falls further as Saudi oil minister rejects cutbacks

–    Look for a move below $60/bbl on WTI soon

•     Today:
–    Eurozone: CPI day – German & French final CPIs for Nov.  Second TLTRO to be held, result won’t be known until next Wednesday
–    Sweden:  CPI expected to fall further into deflation, SEK-negative ahead of next week’s Riksbank meeting
–    Norway:  Norges Bank likely to keep rates steady, but may hint at further easing after yesterday’s slowing inflation. NOK-negative
–    Switzerland: SNB likely to keep policy unchanged, reaffirm EUR/CHF floor

–    US: Retail sales ex autos & gasoline expected to slow, which could hurt USD. Weekly jobless claims forecast to be steady

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