Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Greece dominates market activity

•     Greece dominates market activity
–    Failure to elect a president automatically triggers a general election on Jan. 25th
–    Greek stocks, bond prices fall sharply
–    German, French yields hit record low on flight-to-safety, US Treasuries rally too
–    But Portuguese, Spanish yields little changed, indicating no fear of contagion

•     Dollar gains despite lower yields, fall in Fed funds expectations
–    DXY index hits 2014 high as EUR/USD hits 2014 low
–    Rally despite lower yields shows continued strong support for USD

•     Oil falls further; commodity currencies weaken
–    Oil falls despite attack on Libya’s main loading port
–    RUB falls back towards 60; AUD/NZD hits record low; USD/CAD at 2014 high

•     Gold falls further despite the Greek uncertainty
•     Today:
–    Eurozone: M3 money supply forecast to have accelerated slightly, but as credit growth remains negative, this should not influence ECB

–    US: S&P/Case Shiller house price index expected to rise; Conference Board consumer confidence index expected higher

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