OPEC meeting today unlikely to reach agreement to cut output

•     OPEC meeting today unlikely to reach agreement to cut output

–    Saudi Arabia seems intent on driving oil prices down to push high-cost US shale producers out of the market, punish Russia for supporting Syria’s Assad

–    OPEC already producing some 1mn b/d more than its self-imposed quota; oil market oversupplied by some 600k b/d

–    Oil demand usually falls by around 900k b/d in Q1 owing to seasonal factors

–    OPEC likely to cut output eventually, but not yet = oil prices headed lower

•     Dollar declines on weak US data; may fall further today

–    US indicators yesterday generally missed estimates (durable goods, personal income & spending, Chicago PMI, final U of M consumer confidence for November, initial jobless claims). Fed funds rate expectations fell for 9^th day out of 10

–    US on holiday today = no US news to support USD = weaker USD?

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: German CPI for November expected unchanged mom, yoy rate seen falling to 0.6% from 0.8% yoy = EUR-negative? Eurozone M3 money supply expected to accelerate slightly in October, but not particularly market-moving

–    Draghi speaks in Finland – he’s surprised the market recently with his dovishness, hard to see him springing any more surprises. Weidmann speaks in Germany

–    Canada:  Q3 current account deficit expected stable around Q2 levels