Friday, November 14, 2014

Dollar general higher in a day with little news to move markets / Oil plunges

•     Dollar general higher in a day with little news to move markets
–    Gained the most vs GBP, CAD, SEK
–    Stable vs NOK, CHF, EUR

•     Oil plunges
–    Iraq, Kurdistan reach agreement that could add to supply next year
–    OPEC not likely to cut output at Nov. 27th meeting; on the contrary, it appears to be cutting prices in order to force US shale producers out of the market
–    Lower oil prices are a boon to consumers but can cause difficulty for central banks owing to the impact on inflation

•     US “quit rate” rises = good sign for US job market
–    However Fed funds expected rate declines anyway = no support for USD

•     Today:
–    Eurozone: Q3 GDP data from Eurozone, Germany, France. Sluggish growth (+0.1% qoq expected) means ECB will have to continue supporting economy = EUR-negative
–    UK:  Construction output for Sep forecast to rise
–    US: Retail sales for Oct forecast to rise = USD-positive

–    Speakers:  Coeure, Bullard, Fed Vice Chairman Fischer

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