Friday, October 3, 2014

ECB meets expectations but doesn’t exceed them

•     ECB meets expectations but doesn’t exceed them
–    Announces a program to buy asset backed securities, including Greek paper
–    But fails to set a specific numerical target for purchases, fails to repeat last week’s hints about Council being willing to launch full-blown QE
–    Looks like ECB wants to give current policies time to show their effectiveness (or not) before considering any further moves = largely EUR neutral
–    EUR/USD moves higher but meets sellers keen to add to bearish positions
•     US jobless claims surprise on downside, Challenger layoffs hit 14-year low = US employment picture improving
–    But bond yields end little changed, as did Fed funds futures and stocks too
•     Today:
–    Eurozone: Final service-sector PMIs for September – after downward revision to manufacturing PMIs, possibility of downward revision here too
–    Sweden:  Industrial production for August expected to accelerate

–    US: Nonfarm payrolls expected at 215k, rebounding from unexpectedly low 142k in August. Unemployment rate forecast to stay at 6.1%. News should be mildly USD bullish

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