Scotland appears to reject independence; “no” vote leads !

•     Scotland appears to reject independence; “no” vote leads

–    GBP/USD jumps to around the level we had estimated; further gains may be difficult

–    Close vote means Scotland may try again in several years, but markets have short memories

–    UK political system to undergo major shift as a result; could invigorate economy

•     ECB’s targeted long-term lending operation sees tepid response

–    Various technical reasons may have discouraged banks from borrowing

–    As inflation expectations fall, pressure on ECB for more action in October increases

•     SNB keeps rates unchanged but downgrades outlook

–    Economy deteriorating, risk of deflation increases, but no change in rates

–    EUR/CHF floor remains firmly in place, negative rates a possibility in the future

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: German PPI likely to fall at same pace as in July, showing deflationary pressures = EUR-negative

–    US: Conference Board leading index for June

–    Canada:   CPI for August, wholesale trade for July