Russia/Ukraine “cease fire” dominates market

•     Russia/Ukraine “cease fire” dominates market

–    Assets affected by the tension saw big moves:  Russian stocks and RUB gained, oil up on expectations of faster Eurozone growth. But EUR move was subdued

–    I say “don’t count your chickens before they hatch.” So far no signs of Russian withdrawal. Ukraine PM points out Russia has broken every agreement so far

–    NATO, EU ambassadors still discussing what to do and whether to implement more sanctions. Their actions could cause Russian reaction.

•     Commodity currencies the big winners as risk-taking sentiment improves

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: ECB meeting. We look for some concrete proposal to deal with the risk of deflation, such as an ABS buying program

–    UK:  Bank of England meeting to be the usual non-event until the minutes are released on Sep. 17

–    Sweden:  Riksbank meeting may take dovish tone, SEK-negative

–    US: Lots of indicators. Biggest is ADP report, expected to show 215k rise in private-sector jobs, slightly more than last month and in line with NFP forecast. That would suggest 7^th month in a row of +200k jobs = USD-bullish