Dollar weakens as EM turmoil causes position-squaring

•     Dollar weakens as EM turmoil causes position-squaring

–    Protests in Hong Kong, polls in Brazil, fighting in Ukraine cause EM stocks to fall

–    “Risk off” environment encourages investors to square up positions = cut long USD

–    Domestic US factors should come back to the fore as Friday’s NFP approach, USD likely to regain its lost ground

•     Japanese data is mixed; looking to tonight’s Q3 tankan

–    Retail sales up, wages up, unemployment down, but industrial production plunges

–    Suggests weak overseas demand is hurting economy, may pressure BoJ.

–    Tonight’s tankan expected to show sentiment worsening = JPY-negative

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: Preliminary Eurozone CPI for September – inflation expected to slow slightly, adding to pressure on ECB. German retail sales forecast to rebound

–    UK:  final Q2 GDP, Nationwide house price index

–    US: Conference Board consumer confidence expected to remain high, Chicago PMI forecast to have decreased slightly