•
Dollar rally continues for 11th week
– Record
long string of DXY rises; last week’s 1.4% rise shows no loss of momentum
– Reasons
for dollar’s rise – continued growth of US economy, likely rise in US rates – is
still there, so we expect USD to rally further in coming months
•
NZD worst-performing currency last week,
followed by AUD, CAD
– RBNZ Gov.
Wheeler said level of currency was unjustified and unsustainable
– Other
commodity currencies followed suit; slowdown in Chinese economy likely to keep
them under pressure
•
Today:
– Eurozone: German
CPI for Sep expected to remain at +0.8% yoy
– UK:
Mortgage approvals for August
– US: Personal
income & expenditure for August, pending home sales for August
•
This week’s main features:
– ECB
meeting Thursday: ECB to announce details of its bond-buying programs.
May be some pressure to add to the programs owing to weak economies
– US
nonfarm payrolls Friday: Consensus is for rise in NFP of 210k, back above 200k
line and showing robust growth. USD-positive if it comes in at those levels.
– Japan
Tankan Wednesday: Expected to show further decline in sentiment, adding to
pressure on BOJ to take more steps. JPY-negative
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