Dollar rally continues for 11th week

•     Dollar rally continues for 11^th week

–    Record long string of DXY rises; last week’s 1.4% rise shows no loss of momentum

–    Reasons for dollar’s rise – continued growth of US economy, likely rise in US rates – is still there, so we expect USD to rally further in coming months

•     NZD worst-performing currency last week, followed by AUD, CAD

–     RBNZ Gov. Wheeler said level of currency was unjustified and unsustainable

–     Other commodity currencies followed suit; slowdown in Chinese economy likely to keep them under pressure

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: German CPI for Sep expected to remain at +0.8% yoy

–    UK:  Mortgage approvals for August

–    US: Personal income & expenditure for August, pending home sales for August

•     This week’s main features:

–     ECB meeting Thursday:  ECB to announce details of its bond-buying programs. May be some pressure to add to the programs owing to weak economies

–     US nonfarm payrolls Friday: Consensus is for rise in NFP of 210k, back above 200k line and showing robust growth. USD-positive if it comes in at those levels.

–     Japan Tankan Wednesday: Expected to show further decline in sentiment, adding to pressure on BOJ to take more steps. JPY-negative