A momentous week ahead: the historic Scotland vote

•     A momentous week ahead: the historic Scotland vote

–    Scotland votes on Thursday whether to become independent; results due Friday

–    Market is positioned for a “no” vote, so expect only a slight rebound in that case. “Yes” vote would be disastrous for sterling, in my view (also for Scotland, too)

–    EUR would also be likely to come under pressure as Catalonia would be encouraged to pursue independence. Also if Scottish voters can dissolve a 300-year-old union, then voters elsewhere might get the idea that they can leave the Eurozone

•     ECB’s targeted long-term refinancing operation on Thursday

–    Will inject EUR 400bn; currency impact uncertain

•     FOMC meeting Wednesday

–    Look for new forecasts, including “dot plot” of Fed funds forecasts

–    Focus will be on whether the Fed continues to promise to keep rates low for “a considerable time” after QE ends. Potentially USD-positive if it cuts out the phrase

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: Eurozone trade balance for July

–    US: Industrial production for August expected to decelerate. Empire State manufacturing survey for Sept also out.