Main points of the day

•     FOMC minutes more hawkish than expected

–    Committee is not debating whether to hike rates, but only when to hike

–    “Many participants” thought they might have to hike sooner than expected, while “some participants” wanted to call for “a relatively prompt move”

–    Market expectations still lag significantly behind the FOMC’s current expectation, so there’s plenty of room for market to adjust its expectations upward = USD BULLISH!

•     China manufacturing PMI for August falls more than expected

–    Market was looking for small drop; instead, it fell to 50.3, just barely in expansion

–    AUD weaker; look for further losses

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: Aug manufacturing PMIs due out for Germany, France, Eurozone; Eurozone; Eurozone PMI expected to decline = EUR-negative

–    EU:  Swedish official unemployment for July, Norwegian Q2 GDP

–    UK:  retail sales ex-gasoline for July expected up slightly, but not enough to turn around the bearish sentiment for GBP

–    US: Markit manufacturing PMI for Aug, existing home sales for July, leading index for July, Phili Fed index for August, weekly jobless claims. Home sales expected to be a bit weaker = potential for upward surprise here, given recent housing data. Jobless claims expected to be a bit lower = could be USD-positive