•
Ukraine tensions cause “risk off” on Friday,
but foreign ministers’ meeting should help to reverse that today
– Reports
that Ukraine had attacked a Russian convoy caused “risk off” behavior Friday,
although the impact was lessened after Russia said this was “fantasies”
– Foreign
Ministers of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France met Sunday to discuss a
cease-fire; no agreement, but the fact that they met should soothe the markets
– I expect
a return to “risk-on” investment today
•
Carry fell Friday, look for a recovery today
– TRY, RUB,
PLN, ZAR and HUF were hit the most Friday; could recover today
•
Oil rose sharply Friday, now coming off; gold
seems weak
•
Today:
– Eurozone: Trade
balance for June
– US: National
Association of Home Builders index
•
This week: Central Bankers and PMIs
– Minutes
of RBA meeting (Tue), FOMC and BoE (Wed)
– Fed’s
annual Jackson Hole symposium Thu-Sat: focus this year on labor markets
– Thursday:
Global PMIs coming out
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