Main Points for Today

•      Fears increasing military action along the Ukraine border and tit-for-tat sanctions by Russia fueled demand for gold; RUB weakens, likely to weaken further in our view; PLN and HUF, may be dragged down as well

•      ECB meeting today

•      Despite of signs that the recovery is weakening further, we don’t expect any policy changes at their meeting today

•      Attention will be on ECB President Mario Draghi press conference after the rate decision

•      Australia’s unemployment rate jumps, weakening AUD

•      The nation’s unemployment rate jumped to 6.4% in July from 6.0% in June, missing forecasts of an unchanged reading

•      Statistical problems make it hard to derive a clear conclusion, but RBA likely to be concerned = AUD negative

•      Today: Besides the ECB meeting

•      UK: BoE meeting. No change, no statement.

•      Eurozone: German industrial production for June is expected to have rebounded on a mom basis

•      US: Initial jobless claims for the week ended 2nd of August

•      Canada: building permits for June are forecast to have dropped 1.9% mom from +13.8% in May