Main Points for the day

•     Dollar gains broadly as NAHB index beats expectations

–    Up vs all G10 currencies except AUD

–    Mixed vs EM currencies as carry trades continue to attract attention

•     AUD higher after RBA minutes are released

–    I mistrust the rally as minutes emphasized the risks to the forecast

–    AUD could fall back tomorrow on RBA Gov. Stevens’ testimony

•     NZD weaker as PPI falls

•     Eastern European currencies gaining vs EUR, not USD

–    HUF, PLN, CZK higher vs EUR but not USD as USD strength masks their resilience

–    RUB did gain vs USD – was best-performing EM currency over last 24 hours

–    Investors interested in carry trades might want to look at PLN, HUF vs EUR, JPY

•     Today:

–    Eurozone: Eurozone current account for June not likely to be market-affecting

–    UK:  CPI for July expected to slow a bit; could weaken GBP

–    US: CPI for July expected to slow, but with Fed looking more at employment than inflation, not likely to move market. Housing starts & building permits for July expected to rise, adding to NAHB’s evidence of improving housing market = USD-positive